After one of the Euro 2016 games at the weekend I wondered aloud on twitter the following;
— Rob Carroll (@thevideoanalyst) June 18, 2016
As I write this blog that tweet has received 40,000 impressions. I think it’s safe to assume that I’ve never had a tweet with that much activity on it. The graphic was produced by the excellent Omar Chaudhuri and it’s based on pre-tournament estimates, so no doubt these figures would have changed slightly as the tournament progressed.
The role of a Performance Analyst often refers to on-field tactics, opposition scouting or recruitment but of course it can stretch much beyond that. Is the production of such a model within the remit of a Performance Analyst? I believe it is. This could have an effect on both pre-game and in-game strategies so why not?
My original question still stands I would really love to know how many teams knew before the tournament or as it progressed what it was going to take to qualify. Granted for the top teams they are looking up not down, but those teams that were realistically just eyeing a 3rd place finish this information could be very useful.
The points total required to progress was fairly close to what most people would get by intuition but for me the thing that stood out was the effect goal difference could have. If you were likely to finish on 3 points a -2 goal difference compared to -1 showed an almost 20% jump in qualification likelihood.
Not everyone agreed this sort of info was useful to a team. Ravi Ramineni (Performance Analyst – Seattle Sounders FC)
@thevideoanalyst this table “as-is” isnt very actionable for a manager based on my experience.
— Ravi Ramineni (@analyseFooty) June 18, 2016
I’ve never been involved with a team in the Euros so I could well be talking through my hat, but this information feels like it is of value. Sure by the time you get to the last game teams are fully aware of what is required but how many knew, beyond a general hunch, what was needed as each scenario unfolded?