1. Darren McMurtrie – Performance Analyst Tennis Australia

2. Julia Wells – Performance Analyst GB Canoe Slalom

3. Joe Taylor – Performance Analyst GB Disability Swimming

4. Stafford Murray – Head of Performance Analysis & Biomechanics at the English Institute of Sport

5. Performance Analysis & the Coaching Process – Mark Upton, Adelaide Crows AFL

Having read a recent blog by Chris Anderson, on his brilliant football statistics blog ‘Soccer By The Numbers’, comparing the attacking and defensive performances of each Premier League side, I was inspired to make my first foray into blog-dom.

Following the appointment of Mark Hughes as manager, there has been much talk in the last few days about QPR and their hunt for players in order to avoid relegation. Links have been made with numerous defenders, including Alex and Christopher Samba, with QPR requiring reinforcements to improve their defensive line. This is illustrated by the following graph from Chris’ defensive performance benchmarking (data up to and incl Jan 4). QPR appear in the top-right quadrant, reflecting their concession of both shots and goals in large numbers.

It is, however, the benchmarking of QPR’s attacking prowess which interests me most. Rangers have been linked with a number of Premier League strikers such as Darren Bent, Andy Johnson and Bobby Zamora, since Hughes took charge. The reasoning behind this is clear – QPR have been woeful at converting chances to goals. If Chairman Tony Fernandes’ aim for this season is to consolidate their position in the Premier League, then QPR’s creation of the 10th most chances in the league suits them well. However, as shown in the graph below from Chris’ attacking performance benchmarking blog (data up to and incl Jan 4), they remain in the depths of the league when it comes to turning those shots into goals (Liverpool’s equal tendency to squander chances is presumably a major factor in their failure to break into the Top 5).

In light of this, I decided to take a look at the possible striking targets that QPR could recruit this month, by modifying some of the wealth of statistics made available by WhoScored.com – provided by Opta I believe. The ability to convert shots into goals this season is QPR’s obvious attacking deficiency. Therefore, the most appropriate way to assess potential Rangers recruits should be on the basis of their Chance Conversion Rates to date this season – calculated as the percentage of shots taken from which they have managed to score (data up to and incl Jan 12).

Who Should QPR Sign?

With proven Premier League pedigree often advocate as a necessity in a relegation battle, I limited this search to current Premier League strikers only – Federico Macheda, QPR’s new loan signing, does not quite fit this profile just yet. I reduced the pool further by making the bold assumption that, even with a new cash impetus, they would be unable to attract any stars from the current top-6 teams (Man City, Man United, Tottenham, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool if you need reminding).

The information available was only for players who have more total appearances (Starts + Sub) than the average number of appearances in the Premier League (according to WhoScored.com this is 12), filtering out those players who have not played regularly enough to feature in 60% of the matches so far this season – providing me with 34 players. With QPR’s reliance on 34-year-old Heidar Helgusson evident (he has scored 7 of their 19 goals so far), it is clear that they require someone who can relieve some of this goal-scoring burden. I therefore excluded those who have failed to score 5 or more goals so far this season, leaving me with the following 14 striking options (plus QPR’s Jay Bothroyd):

I’m afraid it is not the prettiest data-presentation you are likely to see, but I have highlighted the Chance Conversion % column in which the players are ranked – but I have left the other information in for clarity. What immediately jumps out is that 39-year-old Yakubu sits top of the pile – he is clearly the main reason for Blackburn’s anomalous position in the attacking benchmarking above. Helgusson rates fairly well in seventh, but is clearly in need of an adequate partner – Jay Bothroyd languishes in 28th position, with a Chance Conversion rate of only 6.5%.

With Macheda not featuring, the remaining potentials include Premier League new boys such as Shane Long, Danny Graham, Grant Holt and Steve Morison, as well as the new king of St James’, Demba Ba. With a mooted buy-out clause of under £10m, Ba may represent a great bet if Hughes can beat his rivals to get his signature. Darren Bent, linked with QPR in the media, is up near the top of the list, but may not represent the best value for money having been sold for £18m only a year ago. Steven Fletcher, now a veteran of several survival campaigns with Wolves, could be a cheaper remedy for Rangers’ problems as one of only three targets in the list to average more than a goal every two appearances. Conspicuous by their absence are two other strikers publicly linked with Rangers, Andy Johnson and Bobby Zamora. They have scored only three and four goals respectively, both with Chance Conversion rates under 15%.

With various confounding factors, such as wage-demands and finding a club willing to sell at this stage of the season, there will be many influences on QPR’s search for a striker. Chance Conversion is just one statistic – and clearly no decision should ever be made based on one sole statistic. Nevertheless, it could offer some key insight into the potential solutions to QPR’s goal-scoring inadequacies – and may even help Queen’s Park Rangers avoid the drop. (Let’s see who QPR sign??)

A big thanks To Laban for submitting this article. If you have something you would like to publish on the blog just drop me an email.

Dartfish will be running six public courses for the first half of 2012 in London, Bristol and Loughborough. At each venue there are two back to back courses; day 1 teaching the technical analysis tools and day 2 covering their “Tagging” notational analysis tools.

Dartfish have asked me to make it clear that the aim of these courses is to show you how to use their software to best affect and they won’t teach you what to analyze or how to be an analyst – you supply your own expertise!

However, if you don’t yet have Dartfish software or simply want to get some experience using it you will be given a sixty day trial of the full TeamPro edition which will allow you time to attend the course, practice the new skills and, along the way, pick up a certificate to add to the CPD folder. They are also knocking the cost of the training off any software bought after making a booking or within 30 days of the course.

The cost is £150 with discounts for those attending both days and students/unwaged (£120). Course schedule and more info here

My favourite bit of this course is that as well as getting to learn a performance analysis tool you also get to take the software home for 60 days! Get’s you a chance to practice and even try it out for real with your club.
The League Managers Association have launched the second in a series of online courses. Course 2 deals with Evaluating Performance.

The LMA School of Football Management in conjunction with Prozone has launched an e-learning course to assist coaches in understanding the techniques used to evaluate player and team performance. The course is intended for coaches who work (or aspire to work) with professional, semi-professional, elite youth or college players.

The advantage of this course is that it is all delivered online so it doesn’t matter where you live you can enroll. I enrolled last week in the name of R&D. I took a quick look around – my initial observations are that the course is an introduction to the area of performance analysis and probably not aimed at existing analysts. Check out the course content here.

If you here of any more courses like these drop me a line and let me know.

I recently came across a couple of blogs I hadn’t seen before – both deal directly with Data Visualization and I wanted to share a really interesting example of what I found.

A Table of Results

Both blogs were dealing with the Manchester Derby from a few weeks back where City won 6-1. On an excellent blog soccerbythenumbers a table of the historical results were presented like so;

Nothing especially wrong with the table but nothing very exciting about it either. I would imagine most people take a quick glance at this and then move on.

Simple but effective improvements.

On the VizWiz blog they looked at making this table come a bit more alive and could use the same data to tell their story in a better way.

So how do you think they did? Here is what they did.

1. Changed the numbers to percentages and rounded to one decimal.
2. Removed most of the grid-lines.
3. Formatted the results as a heat map.  This makes the largest percentage of result very obvious.  For example, you can now easily see, without having to scan across all of the data points, that 1-1 is the most common score line…boring result!
4. Formatted the totals as a second heat map.  I chose a brown-white scheme for these.  The totals show you the % of the total goals scored for each time.  ManU has scored one or two goals 64.2% of the time while City has scored one or two goals 58.2% of the time.

For me this paints a much clearer picture of exactly the same data. But that’s not where the improvement ends.

Visualization is King!

On the dataremixed blog I found an even better improvement. Using a bubble chart they managed to create the following interactive and visually appealing table – again using the exact same data set. (To see the table in all it’s glory click here)

Think like a Storyteller.

This takes the visualization of the data to a whole new level. You now have colours representing the 2 teams and a draw and the size of the bubble shows how popular the scoreline is. I think any human being would prefer looking at the last table than the first. But more importantly that what my preference is – I am also much more likely to remember the important points.

I am constantly on the look out for new and exciting ways to present information. I think the example above highlights just how important that skill is.

So to encourage those not on it here is a list of analysts/statto’s I currently follow. It’s not a finsihed list so if you have anybody who you would like to add leave a comment below.

So here goes – in no particular order.

@Optajoe – The official page of Opta Sports Football coverage. This is the account to follow if you want to bamboozle your mates down the pub.

@LucozadeInsider – Not an analyst but is a sports scientist working with the backroom staff at England’s top flight clubs. Some great insights.

@Soccermetrics - A startup that develops enterprise-level analytics software and provides statistical consulting services for the soccer industry.

@ProzoneSports - Great for keeping with their news and links to some great articles on performance analysis.

@the_numbers_game - A lay statistician with a love for the beautiful game. Author of A Beautiful Numbers Game blog. Guest author at the Transfer Price Index blog.

@andy_b123 – A contributor to this site in the past Andy keeps us up to date with the sports science world in Scottish football. Sport Scientist at Hamilton Accies F.C.

@socceranalysts – A collection of articles from some of the top american stattos/bloggers on football soccer!

@sports_analysis - Offering professional freelance analysis to sports clubs, individuals, universities, colleges and schools in the south east of England. A good perspective on life as a freelance performance analyst.

@sloansportsconf – The huge american conference on sports analytics, great way to keep up-to-date with the goings on in the build up to the 2012 conference.

@Harvard_sports – This is one for the geeks but some excellent articels and research on american sports. We’re the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective (HSAC), a student organization dedicated to quantitative analysis of sports strategy and management.

@soccerquant – This is the twitter account of a really excellent blog. Can’t recommend this enough for informative, well presented articles on soccer. Professor at Cornell University. Editor, soccerbythenumbers.com

@OfficialADJ – WRU – Performance Analyst – North Wales.

@onfooty – Excellent blog and well worth following. I write about soccer analytics. Football geek. Software geek. Data geek. Storyteller.

@scotthelmich – One of very few Premier League Analysts on twitter. Analyst for Swansea City AFC!

@edsulley – 1st Team Performance Analyst with Manchester City. That title speaks for itself really. A must follow.

@mcfcgavinfleig – Head of Performance Analysis at Man City. Another must follow.

@BrianPrestidge - Head Of Performance Analysis at the Mighty Bolton Wanderers.

@markupton – Some great insights from a specialist coach in OZ. Specialist coach in Australian Football League (AFL). Interest in training/teaching methods & how ICT can help. Some great pieces on how we learn.

If you know of anybody else who should be on this list leave a comment below.

Moneyball the Movie

November 25^th signalled the release of the long awaited film “Moneyball”. The movie tells the story of Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane’s successful attempt to put together a baseball club on a budget by employing computer-generated analysis to draft his players. The movie based on the book “Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game” by Michael Lewis, stars Brad Pitt as Billy Beane and Jonah Hill as Peter Brand, Beane’s assistant who helps him reinvent the team around a philosophy of getting cheep wins based on undervalued players, his name was changed in the movie with the character being loosely based on Paul DePodesta. The film has gone down well among the critics with 4/5 star ratings from the Telegraph, Rotten Tomatoes and IMDB and comments such as “One of the best movies of the year” Peter Travers, Rolling stone. Certainly a must see film for all interested in performance analysis.

PlatoSport

Also released in November was a new pitch-side match analysis app called PLATOSPORT. The app created by Dr Grant Abt and Dr Lee Nelson, is exclusively designed for the iPhone and iPod Touch. The aim of the app is to bring the key functionality of the expensive state-of-the-art match analysis systems used by elite sports team without the costs. The functionality of the app is ideal for use on the touch screen apple products allowing the user to analyse almost any situation that might occur. PLATOSPORT uses a layered information system to add levels of information to match events for example for a shot the layers can be player, where it occurred and whether the outcome was successful or not. Once the game for the game has been entered it can then be analysed in the app with the use of graphs. This data in the form of a SQLite database can then be exported via the SQLite database browser into excel for a more detailed analysis. The app comes preloaded with eight sports fields/courts to allow location data to be coded including field hockey, ice hockey, rugby league, rugby union and soccer. Overall PLATOSPORTS offers great functionality at the price of only £2.99!

Golf Swing Analysis

In other news High Definition Golf TM has launched the world’s first automated video swing analysis. The new product based on Jim McLean’s “8 Step Swing” accurately measures every part of a golfer’s swing providing instant feedback while guiding them through the Jim McLean teaching system. The system is integrated into the High Definition Golf TM Simulators which allow players to play on simulations of famous golf courses from around the world. The system works by analyzing the swing, if the swing is outside the “corridor of success” or to have committed a “death move” it automatically alerts the golfer and presents them with a video coaching session including drills and tips to improve performance by a “virtual” Jim McLean. The system has been described as “very intuitive, easy-to-use with all information displayed in a highly organized fashion on the golf simulator touch screen and large display screen”.

Conferences & Events

Upcoming conferences include the International Christmas Sport Scientific Conference in Szombathely, Hungary. Held at the University of West Hungary, the conference will focus on sports performance analysis between the 11th and 14th of December. Speakers include Prof Mike Hughes, Prof Nic James from the UK, Prof. Goran Vuckovic from Slovenia, Prof. Emanouil Skordilis from Greece and Prof. Goran Sporis from Croatia. Themes include sports and society, sports pedagogical and psychological aspects, performance analysis, health, physiology and exercises and also teaching and coaching methodology.

Workshops in November/December include The Albion Foundations performance analysis workshops which took place on the 18^th of November and the 2^nd of December. The workshops delivered by Lee Darnbrough head analyst at WBA FC, are designed for sports coaches, teachers, students and parents with an interest in performance analysis and how it can be used to assess and develop the performance of players.

Badminton Wales are also holding an introduction to performance analysis workshop on the 3^rd of December in Cardiff. The workshop is aimed at UKCC Level 1 & 2 coaches who want to learn more about the basic use of performance analysis and costs between £10 and £15. A similar workshop will take place in Carmarthenshire with dates to be announced early next year.

Written by Daniel White – Bristol City FC

If you know of or have any stories that you think should be included in the industry news section please contact us on info@thevideoanalyst.com 

5. Dr. Fergus Connolly: The 5 I’s of Information Management.

• Instant – understand the immediacy of information. Next week is probably too late
• Integrated – you must be able to correlate information and easily compare one set with the other.
• Important – Make sure data is simple, clean, understandable.
• Individual – Make sure the information is individual, even in team sports different players have different playing standard, key performance indicators and learning styles. Adapt your approach.
• Intuitive – How easy can you make your data to understand. Make data for the masses not for the geeks.

6. Manchester City: Our Past, Present and Future approach to Analytics.

This was a great presentation. Man City used 4 presenters – which they were quick to joke about from the start. Before I get into the actual content of the presentation a quick thought on how it was presented. They were one of the few presenters who really but huge effort into how they presented their information. They used a tool called Prezi but beyond that they used loads of images and video. This is much better than wordy PowerPoint presentations where attendees are always reading ahead of your speaking. Speaking to people afterwards they remarked how slick the presentation was and I think people underestimate what an important part the delivery plays alongside the actual content.

 The four presenters were; Simon Wilson (Strategic Performance Manager), Edward Sulley Performance Analysis Team), Gavin Fleig (Head of Performance Analysis), David Fallows (Scouting & Recruitment Co-Ordinator). 

Now for the content – this too gets top marks. The presentation started with a bit of a journey back in time. A sort of ‘This is Your Life’ of performance analysis! This was a great look back and most of the analysts chuckled to themselves as they remembered what it was like in the ‘old days’ of the Swap Shop. What was most interesting is we forget that the ‘old days’ were probably only 2004/2005. For example it wasn’t until that season that teams were able to get as much footage as they liked. Until that time they relied on swapping VHS tapes and recording highlights programmes which contained about 28 mins of footage. Hard to believe and for me really highlights how we are still at the early stage of all this.

They also made some great points about analysts being much more than number cruncher’s. Analysts must have good personal skills to mix with coaches and players, be creative and have excellent presentation skills in either delivering or preparing a presentation.

Gavin Fleig – Head of Analysis

The presenters changed throughout, and up next was Gavin Fleig the head of analysis at City. He spoke about the importance of conducting

• correct analysis, 
• delivering it effectively and then 
• confirming the learning.

He also spoke about something interesting – Inspiring the players!! This caused some debate in the bar afterwards when I was chatting to a few other analysts, that perhaps as analysts we underestimate the power of belief?

Gavin gave a fantastic practical application of analysis, he showed a sort of historical time line, which listed team names (some country and some club). He then asked what have these teams got in common – there was silence. He then stated that all these teams had one major championships with a goal scored from a corner. They then showed a video of the 8/10 goals. Man City used this with their players. City had gone 22 games and not scored a goal from a corner. After this….. they scored 8 goals in 15 games. For me this was such a powerful use of analysis. Yes they had the data but they didn’t walk into a room full of players and put up figures of 0/22 or the number of championships that had been one with a corner. Instead they used imagery first and foremost backed up by numbers;

0/22 – Correct Analysis

Video and Images – Effective Delivery

8/15 – Confirm learning

This presentation was the most practical and gave a fantastic insight to what analysis looks like at a Premier League Club. There were loads of little nuggets of information to pick up – unfortunately faster than my pen could go at times. One lasting image of their talk will be how in a small way analysis has gone from Statto (Fantasy Football) to  Brad Pitt.

It’s a great image change for the industry – now as analyst can we step up to the mark?

7. And Finally….

I will leave you with the man himself – Billy Beane. This is a longer version of the video played at the opening of the conference. Enjoy. (link)

The conference open with a video of Billy Beane welcoming everybody to the inaugural event – it was an impressive start and a sign of things to come.

1. Tesco : How Tesco mined it’s data to become number 1

This might be a surprising speaker at a sports conference but for me it was a great way to open up the conference. Tesco collect an enormous amount of data on their customers, through their club card and Andrew Higgins presented how the use this data on a daily basis to compete. Andrew used the every little help tagline to highlight how like a sports team they look for every little 1% to make them better than their competitors and how data plays such a huge role in this. Andrew also highlighted the amount of data we are now creating. In 48 hours civilisation is now creating as much data as it did in its history up until 2003!!

2. Professor Bill Gerrard: Discovering the secrets of The Process: Evidence based coaching in Elite Team Sports.

Bill now works with Saracens Rugby but has worked with Billy Beane (Oakland A’s GM), so he has a wealth of experience in sports analytics. One of the opening comments here was that stats seldom provide definitive answers, rather they provide context that complements the coaching process.

Bill also gave a good explanation of why Moneyball was worked so well in Baseball and why we must always bear this in mind when we apply its principles to other sports.

• The Type of Sport – Baseball is very different to an invasion game like Soccer or Rugby. There are many more dynamics at play in an invasion game.
• The Data – The data the Oakland A’s used was open data – it was available to every team, they just happened to be the first ones to use it, but there competitive advantage didn’t last for long. Also the data in baseball is very predicative that’s not the case in other sports.
• The Function – The primary benefit and reason for collecting this information was for player recruitment, not necessarily to do with anything that takes place on the field.

Bill now works with Saracens Rugby and while he applies ‘Moneyball’ principles he was at pains to point out that in an invasion game it is imperative to apply these principles along with coaching context.  Each coach at Saracens spends a few hours coding the games, not just judging players on the outcome but rather on the Effectiveness, Efficiency & Effort. It is still data generation but data generation by experts!

3. Ian Lenaghan: Winning on & Off the field with Analytics, Improving the bottom line.

Ian is the Owner/Chairman & CEO of Oxford United and Wigan Warriors Rugby League Club. Ian’s talk was great because it gave a perspective of monitoring players on & off field from an owner’s point of view. For me it highlighted how important the culture of an organisation is. If the Owner, Manger and players are not all on the same page it is very difficult to move forward. As proof of their concept Wigan (with exactly the same squad) went from 6^th place to champions in 12 months, while also turning a large loss into a profit.

Rob Lowe, Opta: A Statistical analysis of the influence of the match officials in Rugby.

Rob gave more of practical presentation of stats. He used Penalties in both Rugby Union and League to give example of correlating stats to match outcome. There were some peculiar findings in his findings from over 318 games. Rob just looked at the total penalty count in a game and wanted to see if it had an influence on the match outcome.

While the data was informative Rob did highlight one important issue. It is very difficult to contextualize everything. This tied in nicely with Bill Gerrard’s point about adding coaching context to the data is not only important but will also give you a competitive advantage. Some of the context that you ignore at your peril.

• Match Time
• Penalty Location
• Scoreline
• Players on the pitch
• Weather conditions
• Referee

1. Let’s Play Moneyball - It started as a conversation and became the book that changed baseball and other sports forever. As it becomes a movie, player turned statistics king Billy Beane and author Michael Lewis meet up where it all began – in Oakland, California.

Great Article by Simon Kuperin the FT. Click Here

2. An Interview With ESPN’s Soccer Analysts Paul Carr and Albert Larcada. Soccerbythenumbers.com interview ESPN’s soccer analysts, giving a good insight to stats from a broadcasters point of view. Click Here.

3. Visualizing Completed Passes by Position. This one is from the blog onfooty.com (well worth following). I though this offered something interesting terms of analysis but also in terms of visualization. Click Here

4. Football Freakonomics – When good stats go bad. From the authors of the book Freakonomics comes a few interesting articles looking at stats in the NFL. The articles are all supplemented with a well produced video. Even if NFL is not your sport this is well worth checking out. http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/10/30/football-freakonomics-when-good-stats-go-bad/

As billionaire ‘super-benefactors’ fight for the right to own English Football clubs, Pay As You Play takes a detailed look at the correlation between success and transfer spending. 

This book boils down to answering one simple question – can success be bought in the English Premier League? Blackburn Rovers probably started this discussion in the early nineties, Chelsea kept it going int the oo’s and now Manchester City are the latest club to ‘attempt’ to spend their way to the top.  The authors of Pay As You Play attempt to answer, with facts and figures rather than bar room stories, whether this is true or not.

In a way that makes much of this book fascinating is how they have converted ‘old’ transfers in to present-day money. Interestingly they don’t just use a simple inflation figure as clearly there is more money in the game now than ever before. They go into more detail in the book about how they work this out and while they readily admit that it is not without some flaws, it is hard to imagine a better system.

One of the stats I really liked in this book was the ability to compare managers in terms of points gained as a result of the average squad cost. For example Sam Allerdyce comes close to the top of this list. His average cost per point was £410,781 compared to Jose Mourinho who’s average cost per point was £2.5m

The Newcastle Effect

One thing that become immediately apparent from the numerous tables and graphs that this book has is The Newcastle Effect. The even dedicate an entire chapter to it. For whatever reasons it seems that Newcastle have truly underachieved throughout their Premier League career. Even managers who have had good transfer records before joining Newcastle seem to come unstuck at St James Park.

Does Money Buy Success?

While spending millions or even billions might not guarantee you the title, one thing is for sure spending money moves you into a different group of teams. It is evident throughout the book that teams often don’t break outside their ‘group’. We have champions league teams and mid table teams and relegation teams and the best way it seems to move from one group to the other is to spend money. There are obviously exceptions – Big Sam is a positive exception and Newcastle are a not!

Verdict

Overall I really enjoyed this book, the analysis used allowed for some great historical comparisons and gives a good indication of what managers really do stretch their pounds further. The one negative I would have is that although this book is over 300 pages long, much of it is made of a huge amount of detail about individual clubs and managers. While I found it interesting to look at figures for my own club (Blackburn Rovers) I didn’t look through many others, but maybe real stato’s would love that. For me this book was all about the first 70 pages and is well worth the read.

Sample Chapter

Why not take a look at their website and have a read of the sample chapter: The Newcastle Effect.